NHK Trophy 2012: Predictions

The GP series is coming to a close and the NHK Trophy is here, and it will be the last competition before the final. The roster for this competition is looking really good (or at least better than TEB) and I’m super excited.

Akiko Suzuki beckons you in with her lovely costume….

Skate America 2011 – Men and Ladies

The beginning of the figure skating season is upon us! I’m so excited. The post-Olympic year is over and that means the playing field won’t be as sparse and it’s the year for new stars to emerge. The senior figure skating season begins with Skate America with a semi-decent lineup. Here are my predictions for the men’s and ladies’ event. (I will write another post on the ice dance and pairs events.)

Ladies

The ladies roster isn’t really spectacular for this event. The most exciting thing will probably be the battle for gold between two headcases: current World bronze medalist, Carolina Kostner and the elegant (but sadly, a tad bland) Alissa Czisny, who placed 5th at Worlds last season. Both of them have a penchant for being inconsistent and in her last competition, the Japan Open, Alissa had many downgrades and shaky landings on her jumps. I know that Czisny hopes to use the momentum from last season to propel her to a World medal, but I’m not sure if she has what it takes, especially with two Russian divas nipping at everyone’s heels. Carolina Kostner spent all of last season doing a long program with a jump content similar to that of ladies from the 1980s (and somehow managed to win a bronze medal at Worlds) but hopefully her toe injury has healed and she’ll be able to do spectacular triple-triples as she’s done before.

As for the bronze medal, it’s a bit of a free for all seeing that the rest of the contenders are at pretty much the same level unless someone decides to surprise us. I’m kind of hoping it’s Caroline Zhang but I’ve pretty much given up on a comeback from her.

Predictions:

Gold: Carolina Kostner
Silver: Alissa Czisny
Bronze: Ksenia Makarova

Men

The roster for the men’s competition isn’t complete shit – which the ladies roster almost threatens to be. I hope to see Takahiko Kozuka win this handily now that Evan Lysacek has dropped out of the competition. (Not that anyone expected him to compete anyway.) I underestimated this kid last season and I won’t make that mistake again. I hope he makes me proud though. Takahiko has a lot of talent and he has to stop being afraid of showing it. His short program is a little boring though if he adds a little drama and pizzaz to it, he may raise the level of his program from being “slightly boring” to “acceptable.” His Nausicaa LP isn’t half bad though it lacks the genius of the Liszt LP from last season.

Last season, I would’ve pegged Florent Amodio as a veritable competitor for Takahiko but after Takahiko’s progress and World silver medal, it’s becoming painfully clear that this European Champion has ways to go before he can compete with the rest of the big boys. His long program seen in Japan Open was a combination of everything people make fun of in figure skating and was a choreographic horror. I’m very embarrassed for Florent and I’m not even the one skating the program! (And I’m sure I’m not the only one…) Horrible LP aside, if he manages to skate clean, a silver medal is probably in his reach.

However, he’ll have to watch out for a few youngsters with potential: namely Armin Mahbanoozadeh, who was a surprise bronze medalist at Skate America last year (and being American doesn’t hurt his chances at a medal) and Denis Ten, who is now training with Frank Carroll. Ten is a headcase but maybe Frank has hammered something positive into him. I’m not too fond of his skating, but what does that matter? Michal Brezina may surprise us but his results at minor summer competitions has made me lose hope on him. Oh well, at least that’ll mean that the Czech federation will be backing Tomas until he retires…

Predictions:

Gold: Takahiko Kozuka
Silver: Florent Amodio
Bronze: Armin Mahbanoozadeh

What are your predictions for Skate America?

~The Rinkside Cafe

Worlds 2011: Dethronement – Part I

I apologize for the lack of posts during the World competition, I’ve been horrendously busy in the past few days of my life with long overdue appointments with friends. I’m going to have to do some vigorous catching up and I’ll write a bit more later on.

So the most recent developments in the World scene include dethronements of two Olympic champions (well, three actually since one is a team of two): Yuna Kim and Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir. One dethronement was a little unexpected than the other. I’m pretty sure you can guess which is which. So let’s start with the ladies. I’m going to write about ice dance in another post.

After the SP, Yuna Kim was leading Miki Ando by a margin of 0.33 – all from the PCS mark. Here were their programs:

As much as I have a lot of issues with Morozov’s choreography I admit that Miki’s program was well skated and might have deserved a higher mark for interpretation. Sadly enough, I found Yuna’s “Giselle” program a bit boring compared to her other programs so I would’ve put her choreography and interpretation marks a tad lower. And a lower score for performance and execution, she did miss her first combination jump after all. Feel free to disagree but I thought Miki deserved to be the leader after the SP.

Speaking of leaders, Chairman Mao underrotated and two-footed her triple axel. I’m a bit surprised at her PCS though, her skating skills and transitions are as good as ever but she was still 7th after the SP.

The surprise skater in 3rd place was Ksenia Makarova. The girl was on… and being Russian didn’t hurt her either.

Before I end the bit about the SP, I’ll give a special mention to my favourite of the season Kanako Murakami. She didn’t skate with the same cuteness and energy at the beginning of the season but that smile on her face at the end of the program said it all. 8th place overall at her first Worlds is not shabby at all and she should be proud of herself. Although she doesn’t exude as much cuteness, I would hope that this marks the beginning of Kanako as a more mature and polished skater. I can’t wait to see her next season!

You can find the full results of the SP here. And for the LP results, click here.

So the LP came and went and that was when the dethroning happened.

Yuna singled her toeloop after her first salchow and did the worst thing you could do under the new scoring system: she popped a jump – her flip, which she was having issues with at the beginning of the season last year. I actually liked the music for this program and overall, it was a lot more pleasant to watch than her short. I hope that she uses it again next season should she decide to compete.

Miki brought it in the long and skated it with only 1 mistake – a step out on a double toe combination. I think despite her lack of musicality and icky choreography, this World championship win should be considered the best moment of her career. She hadn’t been top Japanese lady for a while (and even when she won Nationals this year, people still picked Mao over Miki to win. She stuck with harsh and undeserved attacks from the media after her disastrous results at Torino, didn’t make it to the podium in Vancouver but stuck it out and won.

We should also mention that Miki has improved quite a bit in terms of presentation (her sit spin is actually a sit spin!), consistency and extension since her 2007 World championship win.

I’m sure there are people out there who aren’t great fans of Miki but I feel that she deserves quite a bit of admiration for her tenacity and the speed and strength that she exudes on the ice. Her stroking at Worlds was, admittedly, a thing of beauty.

I think I’ll end here on a high note. There’s a lot more catching up to do before I can make more comments on what transpired at Worlds so I thank you for your patience.

~The Rinkside Cafe

The Junior Russian Divas Revisited

So Russian Nationals was this week and there were a few interesting developments. Volosozhar and Trankov won the pairs competition and they look to be a pair to look out for next year. Bobrova and Sloviev won the ice dance competition although the baby Russians, Ilinykh and Katsalapov lost silver to a relatively unknown team whose names I probably can’t pronounce. These two did not have the meteoric rise that I thought they would have this season but next season might be the beginning of a fruitful career. The Russian men are a non entity so I’d have to say that the most exciting competition belongs to the Russian ladies.

Ksenia Makarova failed to defend her title as National champion as it was taken away by a young and talented lady by the name of Adelina Sotnikova. Adelina has a long way to go before she can even reach last year’s junior world champion, Kanako Murakami, though both of them lack polish and performance quality. She also doesn’t seem to be very tight in the air, which I’d like to see corrected. I wonder if she can manage those jumps once her growth spurt hits her because I’ve got a feeling it’s going to hit hard. It would be a pity if that happened because she’s such a classic Russian balletic skater and she’s very elegant for her age.

I hate the dress for her SP. It makes her look so immature and just simply juvenile.

Alena Leonova won silver but she’s a bit of a non-entity. Using Aunt Joyce’s adjective, I’d call her skating pedestrian and simply forgettable. One of my friends hates her Slutskaya hair and that’s pretty much all she can think about when she watches Alena skate. I think she’s subconsciously recalling the days when Irina Slutskaya beat Michelle Kwan. *shudder*

Anyways, onto another topic. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva – a diva on ice who got buried in the SP and made a comeback in the LP, undoubtedly, with some help from Papa Mishin. Despite Mishin’s choreography, I can’t help but like Johnny Weir’s twin sister Elizaveta. All she has to do is look at the camera and you can tell that she just spews star quality. I just wish that she would move to another – bigger and better – figure skating mafia don coach, in other words, Tatiana Tarasova. Tati can take her star quality and turn it into something great, not to mention Liza is in need of good choreography. I think she’d be able to pull of Bells of Moscow better than Mao… Or even the Masquerade Waltz. I’m shivering from excitement as I’m imagining it. So please, Liza, do a Yagudin and go to Mother Tanya.

Aunt Joyce has all the videos for the ladies short and long programs on his blog.

Enjoy~!

Cup of Russia: Predictions

I’m running on very little sleep and I have very little free time so I apologize if this week’s predictions are a bit rushed.

Men

Patrick Chan (overinflated) Score will be present at the Cup of Russia and his only real competition at this point would be Jeremy Abbott, which makes me afraid. Very afraid. Jeremy can either do very very well or bomb his little ass off. Tomas Verner is still too weak this season (but should be able to make the podium) to make a run for the gold. I only wish I could put my faith in my darling Czech and hope that he will win me gold and prevent stupid Chan from winning.

Ladies

Miki Ando should probably win against a relatively weak field. Ksenia Makarova and Akiko Suzuki will probably be embroiled in a battle for silver unless Miki goes batshit crazy like in her pre-2009 years.

Pairs

I though Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov were off the GP because of injury but if they are competing, then they should probably win. They’re not fabulous but they’re a head and shoulders above Narumi Takahashi & Melvin Tran and Amanda Evora & Mark Ladwig. Being Russian also helps Kavaguti/Smirnov.

Ice Dance

After all their costuming problems in their last GP assignment, Faiella & Scali will probably get their costumes in order and take the title. The costume mishaps were really costly and at this point, I think it’s still a bit unclear as to who the top European team will be. We’ll have to wait until the GPF to find out. The two young Russian teams (Ilynkh & Katsalapov and Bobrova & Sloviev) will probably do very well and probably round out the podium with a fight for the silver.

The Cafe’s Picks:

Men: Jeremy Abbott (for the love of God and all that is holy)
Ladies: Miki Ando
Pairs: Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnoff (and if they aren’t competing, Takahashi & Tran)
Ice Dance: Federica Faiella & Massimo Scali

Miscellaneous

Also, just an amusing observation, PJ Kwong wrote an article entitled, “What to make of Skate America.” I wanted to demand an article entitled, “What to make of Skate Canada: how Patrick Chan won against a field that was better and cleaner than he was after falling 3 times in the short and being sloppy in the free” in the comments but the nationalistic crazies that roam the CBC website will probably be after my blood. If I had the money, I would buy them all a copy of Benedict Anderson’s “Imagined Communities” but I don’t wipe my ass with a hundred dollar bills so I will just blog about it sometime in the future. Even if I don’t, re-reading Anderson would not be a detriment in any way anyways.

Enjoy~!

~The Rinkside Cafe

Skate Canada – Predictions

After a wonderful start to the figure skating season last week at NHK, I have only one word to describe Skate Canada: mediocre. Why? Well, the only competition worth watching is the men’s while the other disciplines are filled with B-listers. You doubt me, I hear? Well, let’s take a look at the competition.

Men

This week at Skate Canada, we’ll finally see whether Patrick Chan has kept his over inflated head in check so he could land his developing quad and triple axel. The 2010 World silver medalist has a lot to prove if he wants everyone, not just the Canadians, to acknowledge that he’s one of the best in the world. The only major international competition he’s won to date is Four Continents and now that the Olympics aren’t in Canada anymore, we might see his scores even out a little with the rest of the competition. (In other words, hopefully his scores will be less inflated. His marks at Skate Canada and the Olympics last year were ridiculous.)

The babyfaced daddy, Nobunari Oda will have to prove himself this weekend after a disastrous showing at Worlds last year where he didn’t even advance to skate his LP. We’ll also see if “the perils of coaching changes” has affected Oda since he’s left Morozov for his former coach, Lee Barkell as Morozov has left for mother Russia to ensure her dominance in figure skating at Sochi. In any case, Oda has talent, beautiful jumps and if he has a program like his Charlie Chaplain LP last year, he can charm the pants off of anyone. As long as it doesn’t result in a shotgun wedding again because he can’t be married again.

Another interesting entry will be Adam Rippon who beat two Vancouver Olympic medalists at the Japan Open. Rippon’s lyrical style is absolutely a pleasure to watch and he’s slated as the next men’s figure skating star. We’ll see if he fulfills this high expectation this year. With most of the American men off doing TV shows and photo shoots, Rippon has a clear shot at the National title if he beats Jeremy Abbott, who seems to peak around that time.

Ladies

I was rendered speechless when I saw the ladies roster for Skate Canada. Not out of delight but out of pure and total suckiness. Ksenia Makarova might be the only exciting competitor out there. She’s improved greatly over the summer and I think she’s the only one who has a triple-triple in her arsenal. Cynthia Phaneuf finished a respectable 5th but she tends to have a rough start to her season, not to mention that Phaneuf is a total headcase. Let me repeat that for emphasis: TOTAL HEADCASE. Okay. Speaking of headcases, Alissa Czisny will be there as well. Who knows where she’ll end up. As for the rest… let’s let them prove to me that they are worth mentioning. Agnes Zawadzki will also be an interesting entry. She had success in the junior years. I wonder what kind of splash she’ll make in the senior ranks.

Pairs

Well, Dube and Davison are gone due to injury. I don’t see that as too much of a loss since my respect for them has diminished forever due to their complete inability to skate to Carmen. For those who don’t understand why I see this as a crime, let’s just make this analogy. Not being able to skate to Carmen is like… being a patriotic citizen without recognizing your own national flag. Or being illiterate while studying at Harvard. Or… a lot of things. You get the point.

Anyways, the problem with the pairs competition is that there is absolutely no clear contender. A trusted friend, whose opinion I respect (and who I might invite as a guest blogger) likes Iliushechkina & Maisuradze, who finished 4th at Junior Worlds last season. It’s a long shot but no one is extremely spectacular and despite Kwong’s assertion that two single skaters will make a good pairs team, I would care to disagree.

Ice Dance

Vanessa Crone and Paul Poirier are hometown favourites after a top 10 finish at Worlds. Don’t ask me how I know but Poirier started at university this year, which may or may not affect his training seeing at how busy university and classes can be. In any case, they’ll face tough competition from the Kerrs. There will be a free for all for the bronze as far as I know, so I hope that a team might delight me by surprise.

The Cafe’s picks:

Unlike PJ Kwong, who I consider my nemesis for no apparent reason, I do NOT see a Canuck sweep of Skate Canada despite any inflation that may occur:

Ladies: Ksenia Makarova
Men: Nobunari Oda
Pairs: Lubov Iliushechkina & Nodari Maisuradze
Ice Dance: Sinead & John Kerr

Thoughts? Opinions? Please share!

~The Rinkside Cafe