Predictions: Skate Canada 2013

Skate Canada is upon us! Onwards with the predictions! I apologize for any typos, by the way. My house is really cold and my fingers aren’t cooperating with me at the moment.

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Men

Patrick Chan is competing. In Canada. If you still don’t get it, I’ll put it in an equation for you:

Chan + skating in Chanada = instant gold. Sigh.

As for silver and bronze, expect a tough battle between the young prince, Yuzuru Hanyu, and his older teammate, Nobunari Oda. This is going to be a tough call.

Predictions:

Gold: Patrick Chan
Silver:
Yuzuru Hanyu
Bronze:
Nobunari Oda

Ladies

The ladies competition is another tough call. Little youngin’, Julia Lipnitskaia recently beat veteran, Akiko Suzuki, at the Finlandia Trophy. However, Akiko starts out the season a little rough and improves throughout the GP series. (After the GP series, she gets undermarked in the PCS and drops in the rankings at competitions…) As for Lipnitskaia, I really do wonder about her skating career. She may be winning the medals now but puberty is acoming and her jumps are frightfully low and she doesn’t come out of them with a lot of speed or flow. That’s a very bad sign for things to come when the ice and gravity is less forgiving once puberty sets in.

Katelyn Osmond has home ice advantage (and I swear I see her Olympics feature ad more often than any other skater on CBC for some reason) and she’s the defending champion but according to PJ Kwong’s CBC article, she’s been struggling with injuries lately. That and I attribute her win last year more to the mistakes of her competitors than her own skating. Gracie Gold may be the one to snatch a medal away from Katelyn if the latter’s skating is abysmal enough. Though it will be a tough call with the home ice advantage that Katelyn has…

Predictions:

Gold: Akiko Suzuki (please, Akiko, don’t let me down!)
Silver:
Julia Lipnitskaia
Bronze:
Gracie Gold

Pairs

I hate doing pairs predictions. Or pairs competitions in general. They’re just not as exciting or beautiful as they used to be.

In any case, Meaghan Duhamel & Eric Radford are in a position not unlike Joannie Rochette 4 seasons ago: they’ll never touch the top two teams – S&S and V&T – just as Joannie couldn’t really touch Mao or Yuna but they’re better than the rest of the field, which is why their improvement in the rankings and skating ability is so exciting: they’re poised to take Olympic bronze. At Skate Canada though, they’ll probably take the gold. As for the rest of the medals, lets just say that these predictions won’t be pretty.

Stefania Berton & Ondrej Hotarek let me down at Skate America by not getting bronze but I know they have it in them to get on the podium at GP events. I’m not a fan of their programs but they are lovely to watch. There was also a time where I absolutely adored Wenjing Sui & Cong Han but after missing a season, I’m not sure where they stand amongst their competitors, especially after a 12th place finish at Worlds. Another team to keep an eye out for: Paige Lawrence & Rudi Swiegers. I was quite impressed with Paige’s drive and competitiveness in the CBC documentary, “Ice, Sweat and Tears,” but I hope that it will translate into the team’s skating. Home-ice advantage will also give their scores a boost which might help them in their quest to medal. In all honesty, I’m not confident about these predictions beyond the gold.

Predictions:

Gold: Meaghan Duhamel & Eric Radford
Silver:
Stefania Berton & Ondrej Hotarek
Bronze:
Wenjing Sui & Cong Han

Ice Dance

Just like their rivals, Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir will take the gold quite handily unless they withdraw. *hopes that that doesn’t happen* Their teammates, Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Poje, seems to have overcome their injury from last season and are skating strong as they have in the past few seasons. I expect them to get the silver. The bronze medal seems to be the tough call since there aren’t that many standout teams in this competition. If I were to hazard a guess at the bronze medal team, I’d say that it could go to Ekaterina Riazanova & Ilia Tkachenko, who medaled at two GP events last season (both bronze), which makes them a head above the rest of the list after the two Canadian teams.

Predictions:

Gold: Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir
Silver:
Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Poje
Bronze:
Ekaterina Riazanova & Ilia Tkachenko

What are your predictions for Skate Canada 2013? Let me know in the comments!

~The Rinkside Cafe

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Trophee Eric Bompard 2012: Predictions

So today, I came across the concept of a regression analysis, which is super interesting because it is essentially what Nate Silver did on fivethirtyeight to correctly predict the electoral college outcomes for 50 out of 50 states and the District of Columbia in the most recent U.S. presidential election. My curiosity has led me to ponder whether I should somehow try to create a regression model to predict figure skating results though I’ll definitely need a lot of guidance and help and maybe more information on it in general. Personally, it might be less biased and a lot easier on me if a mathstatsmagician wizard like Nate Silver could come along and create a model because I hold firm on the adage that ice is slippery and that a regression model would probably fail to capture the insane world of figure skating where the location, the proximity of the Olympics, whether or not you’re sleeping with Nikolai Morozov, all sorts of ridiculous things come into play.

In any case, I’ll do my predictions the same old way as I did before but I may try to see if I can come up with a regression model if I manage to have any free time. For TEB, I would actually love to have statistics do all the work for me because the roster is not only kind of boring but the playing field is quite level, which means I’ll have to piddle around with a whole bunch of B-list skaters to figure out the lower rungs of the podium.

A fierce Liza beckons you in… More

Skate Canada 2011: Predictions

Ok. I’ll make this quick because I seriously need to do some stuff and sleep before I can watch the ladies program. I hope Elizaveta skates in the latter group so I can have a little extra sleep. I’m awfully mad that I can’t watch the SD live because of work but I know that videos will surface. I don’t think I’ll live blog the events I’ll (hopefully) be watching live since my live blogs are totally inadequate when compared to others but I hope that my posts will be a bit more speedy. In any case, PREDICTIONS.

Men

I have no doubt in my mind that Patrick Chan will win. Even if he falls on his ass 3 times in a program, the judges will somehow award him enough PCS to give him a shiny gold medal. Just like last year. (Remember my outrage?) As for the rest of the podium, I sincerely hope that Daisuke Takahashi won’t give us a repeat performance of the Japan Open, though if he skates clean, he should be able to clinch the silver. I’m so cynical right now that I’m absolutely positive that even if Chan falls 3 times and Daisuke skates cleanly, Chan can still win the gold. If Chan does skate cleanly, be prepared for inflation of vomit-inducing proportions. As for the bronze, I’d say it would be a toss-off between surprise Skate America silver medalist, Kevin Van Der Perren, the newly Orserfied Javier Fernandez and last year’s hopeful phenom that’s starting to fade without a stable quad or 3A, Adam Rippon.

Predictions:

Gold: Patrick Chan
Silver: Daisuke Takahashi
Bronze: Javier Fernandez

Ladies


The ladies roster is exciting not because there are tons of high profile names. In fact, there really isn’t anyone who’s clearly an A-list skater. What’s exciting is the potential in this ladies field. FSOnline commented that a mini-U.S. nationals is happening because of the appearance of Mirai Nagasu, Rachael Flatt and Ashley Wagner. I’d never really place any bets on the latter two but Mirai is also a risky bet. A more mature Akiko Suzuki will emerge hopefully from a bit of a disappointing season last year. She’s a GP skater to look out for though I’m a bit worried about how she’ll do against the young phenom, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva who has a triple-triple and Papa Mishin’s backing in her arsenal. As for Cynthia Phaneuf, who PJ Kwong claims can “reach” her audience unlike Elizaveta (a statement I just disregarded because Liza has more charisma than Cynthia can ever hope for – not to mention Phaneuf’s performances makes drying paint look more entertaining), I wouldn’t be surprised if Skate Canada gave her tons of points of a good SP only to have that effort wasted when she skates a terrible LP.  I’m really not sure how this competition will go but I’ll give these predictions a shot.

Predictions:

Gold: Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Silver: Akiko Suzuki
Bronze: Mirai Nagasu

Pairs

 

The pairs competition will be exciting for once. The gold will definitely go to Tatiana Volosozhar & Maxim Trankov even though Nikolai Morozov’s horrid choreography is ruining this pair. If my baby Chinese pairs (Wenjing Sui and Cong Han) team can skate clean and get over their hiccups in their junior GP assignments, they have the technical elements and potential to win silver. I don’t know how much influence Mother Russia will have in this competition but we should probably keep an eye out for Lubov Iliushchekina and Nodari Maisuradze. These two have a mature skating style, though I feel that Nodari is holding Lubov back at times for being a less than reliable partner and for not giving 110% in his performance. Narumi Takahashi and Melvin Tran will be fun to watch but their competitors are too good, which may dash their GPF hopes at least at Skate Canada.

Predictions:

Gold: Tatiana Volosozhar & Maxim Trankov
Silver: Wenjing Sui & Cong Han
Bronze: Lubov Iliushchekina & Nodari Maisuradze

Ice Dance

The ice dance competition marks the return of Tessa and Scott to the Grand Prix circuit after skipping it last year for Tessa’s surgery. Barring major disaster or injury, they should be given the gold quite handily. With hometown advantage and the absence of Nathalie Pechalat & Fabian Bourzat due to illness, Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Poje should have a good start to their season as well with a silver. The bronze is a bit of a toss-off between Ekaterina Riazanova and Ilia Tkachenko (more Russian names I can’t pronounce) and the newly formed team of Madison Chock and Evan Bates. The battle for bronze is a battle between Mother Russian and Queen Marina’s influence.

Predictions:

Gold: Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir ❤
Silver: Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Poje
Bronze: Ekaterina Riazanova & Ilia Tkachenko

Ok. Chores and sleep. So much to do, so little time? Any opinions on the outcomes at Skate Canada?

~The Rinkside Cafe