Trophee Eric Bompard 2012: Predictions

So today, I came across the concept of a regression analysis, which is super interesting because it is essentially what Nate Silver did on fivethirtyeight to correctly predict the electoral college outcomes for 50 out of 50 states and the District of Columbia in the most recent U.S. presidential election. My curiosity has led me to ponder whether I should somehow try to create a regression model to predict figure skating results though I’ll definitely need a lot of guidance and help and maybe more information on it in general. Personally, it might be less biased and a lot easier on me if a mathstatsmagician wizard like Nate Silver could come along and create a model because I hold firm on the adage that ice is slippery and that a regression model would probably fail to capture the insane world of figure skating where the location, the proximity of the Olympics, whether or not you’re sleeping with Nikolai Morozov, all sorts of ridiculous things come into play.

In any case, I’ll do my predictions the same old way as I did before but I may try to see if I can come up with a regression model if I manage to have any free time. For TEB, I would actually love to have statistics do all the work for me because the roster is not only kind of boring but the playing field is quite level, which means I’ll have to piddle around with a whole bunch of B-list skaters to figure out the lower rungs of the podium.

A fierce Liza beckons you in…

Men

Ok, I think I’m going to need a regression model. I’ll use it when I have stupid rosters like these ones. Why, you ask? Well, let’s see, in this competition, we have Brian Joubert, who’s a dying star who’s more suited to the 6.0 judging system but isn’t really cut out for the new system now that more wrinkles have been smoothed out since its inception. Then we have Florent Amodio, who has home ice advantage but is constantly skating to random crap that makes no bloody sense at all. (Well, the fall on his 3A was perfectly timed to the music during his SP at Skate Canada…) His Farrucas SP is just painful to watch because I see no connection between the movement and the music. His LP is a little better though he might as well just take 10 seconds and just stand still in a corner because there are so many long pauses in the choreography.

Anyways, who else? Well, there’s Jeremy Abbott who may or may not be injured. This year is starting to smell like that year he started the season with boot problems. Loss of momentum at the beginning that resulted in a crash and burn season. There’s Tomas Verner who’s basically a non-entity these days. Oh yes, and there’s Nan Song, who I hope will shine with his lovely skating skills but isn’t blooming just yet. Note to you, kid, it’s time that you bloom.

So, what they heck am I supposed to do with this? I really have no clue. Where’s a regression model when you need one? Ugh. Ok, here goes nothing. I’m prepared to crash and burn.

Predictions

Gold: Florent Amodio
Silver: Jeremy Abbott
Bronze: Um… Brian Joubert?

You really don’t understand how unconfident I am about these predictions. Especially with Florent in Gold. And Jeremy with silver. And basically the entire podium.

By the way, here are some quotes from PJ Kwong’s blog on the men’s competition at TEB this year:

“It’s kind of like looking in the fridge at leftovers and putting them all together for dinner — you just don’t know if it’s going to be good or not.”

“In other words, tossing a dart at a dartboard could have the same result as my educated guess of Amodio taking the men’s title in Paris.”

I had a good laugh over that, PJ. I couldn’t agree more.

You know what? I’m going to put up a poll. You tell me who you think will win.

Ladies

Ashley Wagner is proving herself to be a threat this season and I think she should be able to take the gold here. Maybe I should turn to statistics to set a confidence interval while I’m on this regression model phase. However, I do admit that I really want Elizaveta Tuktamysheva to prove me wrong and snatch the gold away. I know she placed fourth at Skate Canada but I’m really hoping for something good here. Her teammate Julia Lipnitskaia did win a silver at the Cup of China but her jump technique scares me. Unless she fixes her tilt in the air and her really low jumps, I’m not going to peg her for very much. Christina Gao also won a silver this season but Christina’s also a mixed bag, who knows which Christina will show up in the competition?

Predictions:

Gold: Ashley Wagner
Silver: Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Bronze: Christina Gao

Pairs

Unfortunately, Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy had to drop out of the competition since Aliona is sick and is on antibiotics. A pity since their absence makes the roster for this competition even more lame than it already is. Great. Well, I suppose Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov should be happy. They should be the next shoo ins for a medal since they’re a head above the rest. Meaghan Duhamel & Eric Radford should be able to take the silver while the up and coming Italian team, Stefania Berton & Andrej Hotarek should be strong enough to take the bronze.

Predictions:

Gold: Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov
Silver: Meaghan Duhamel & Eric Radford
Bronze: Stefania Berton & Andrej Hotarek

Ice Dance

Nathalie Pechalat & Fabian Bourzat should be able to take the gold here. Not only are they the top European team but Davis & White and Virtue & Moir aren’t at TEB and they have home ice advantage. Anna Cappellini & Luca Lanotte should take silver with their Disneyfied Carmen FD while the Russians, Ekaterina Riazanova & Ilia Tkachenko will likely take the bronze. An all-European podium. It’s been a while since we’ve seen that.

Predictions:

Gold: Nathalie Pechalat & Fabian Bourzat
Silver: Anna Cappellini & Luca Lanotte
Bronze: Ekaterina Riazanova & Ilia Tkachenko

What are your predictions for TEB?

~The Rinkside Cafe

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1 Comment (+add yours?)

  1. John King
    Apr 13, 2015 @ 22:04:20

    Good for Elizaveta Tuktamysheva for hitting her stride big time this year!

    Reply

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